Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
