Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a critical trip to Washington to meet American leader Donald Trump. This constitutes the first in-person encounter between the two leaders following an extended period of rising tensions and sharp exchanges.
Topics for Discussion
The situation in Venezuela, narcotics trade, energy, security, and American military actions on suspected narco-boats are expected to be top on the agenda when they gather at the US presidential residence on the scheduled day.
A History of Strained Relations
Although the two men were polite in a telephone conversation following a recent American action, Petro has subsequently said he feels there is a "serious risk" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, in turn, has earlier remarked that a military operation in Colombia "sounds good".
Tuesday's meeting comes after an extended period of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly criticised ongoing US attacks on alleged narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the US administration's immigration policies.
"His stance shifted," Trump was quoted as saying prior to the White House meeting.
Areas of Disagreement
From Washington's perspective, Trump has charged Petro's government of not doing enough to halt the flow of narcotics heading north, and has pledged to extend military actions to terrestrial objectives throughout the area.
But, the hostility seemed to dissipate following a "cordial" phone call involving the two presidents, which a source from Bogotá later characterized as an complete reversal "from both sides".
Mediating Role
According to diplomatic sources, one man – Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the conversation. "I have faith in negotiation and I thought our relations were going in the wrong direction," the senator was quoted as saying. "And I'd like to see our relationship to improve."
Border Security and the ELN
Prior to Tuesday's visit, Colombian indicated that much of the discussion would focus on shared US and Colombian worries over stability in Venezuela, with which Colombia shares an long frontier.
Much of that border is under the sway of the National Liberation Army. This armed faction, founded in the 1960s, controls narco-trade, extortion, contraband, and illegal mining in border states and allegedly collaborates with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.
For Trump, addressing the threat of the ELN will be crucial to ensuring safety for US companies involved in Venezuela's oil industry. Analysts point out that the ELN has the capacity to spoil economic ambitions by attacking foreign investors and staff, as it has in the past attempted in Colombia.
Drug War Cooperation
An equally pressing issue for the two presidents will be the struggle against cocaine trafficking from Colombia, the global biggest producer of the narcotic. Earlier this year, Petro ordered a halt on information exchange with US security agencies following Trump's threats.
The US has, conversely, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in combating the narcotics trade. It has also imposed sanctions on figures in Petro's government, encompassing the president and members of his family.
"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "Any move to cut off Colombian intelligence could also weaken all enforcement efforts."
Possible Scenarios
Despite several areas for cooperation, the potential for a clash remains. "The US President's stance can be volatile," commented a ex-official. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avoid Trump's ire... However, it's unpredictable."
For the Colombian leader, even a contentious meeting could be beneficial. His time in office ends soon, and the outcome of the meeting could impact the electoral chances of his chosen candidate.
"In some ways, he's kind of in a win-win position," noted a regional expert. "If it goes well takes the air out of opposition arguments... If talks sour, he's protecting Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favor."
